2.2.1.4 Environmental Quality

Yields and production are critically affected by the water table and the condition of the soils the rising water table has eroded the natural potential of agriculture production in Pakistan. The twin problems of water-logging and salinity pose a real danger to Pakistan. Over 16% of the country's irrigated lands are presently degraded by severe water-logging and over 14% are affected by severe salinity. The Government of Pakistan initiated the Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPs) in the 1960s through the use of tube-well technology for drainage. However, the heavy operational and repair costs and pumping saline water from ground brackish water zone tilted the balance in favor of shallow tube-wells and even pipe drainage system The tube-wells have contributed to the salt accumulation in the soil surface because the equality between incoming and outgoing salts was not maintained and the water table virtually lowered by evaporation a transpiration. Due to the failure of the SCARPs to deal with the problem effectively, the National Drainage Project (NDP) was approved in 1997 at Cost of Rs 31 billion. 

2.3 Vision Elements

The elements of the vision which are common to all the Regional Countries as identified in the SARWV are shown in Annex-2.1. In addition, the following elements have been brought out as specific to Pakistan t as specific to Pakistan.

• National consensus in the development of hydro-power, reservoirs for irrigation and power generation.

• Research and Technology development in the areas of energy use, desalination of water.

• Salt balance in the soils will be so managed that the natural carrying capacity of the land will not be negatively impacted by excess salts.

• Development of a strategy for effective disposal of the sediment in the reservoirs.

• Coordination and linkage between irrigation and drainage functions. A sustainable drainage policy and strategy to resolve problems of water-logging and salinity.

• A hybrid system of energy supply in which indigenous, localized and renewable energy resources will be the main source of energy. 

2.2.1.2 Economic Growth

Pakistan's economy has undergone a remarkable structural change during the last four decades. In the years between 1949-50 agriculture was the dominant sector, contributing about 53% to Gross Domestic Project (GDP). However, the share of the agriculture sector has declined over time and was at 246 in 1997-98 However, agriculture is still the largest sector providing one quarter of GDP and 70% of the work force derives employment from agriculture, and agricultural exports generate over 70% of the total foreign exchange earnings Projections of the structure of the economy were made based on the past record of economic growth for 2025. These projections indicate that by the year 2025 the share of the agriculture sector in GDP will decrease to 18.41 %, manufacturing sector will be 21.99% and other commodity producing sectors will be 10.69%. The service sectors share in GDP will not change and is projected to be around 48.91%.

2.2.1.3 Energy Use

Per capita consumption of energy in Pakistan is extremely low, with a comparatively flat rate of increase However, Pakistan uses the limited energy at its disposal in an extremely inefficient manner Availability of energy is key for economic growth and development in Pakistan Any change in the energy sector would have a direct impact on the water sector because of the large amount of energy used by the water sector. The water sector is one of the principal users of electricity and as such. the energy pricing policies will have a great deal of impact on our use of water resources It is estimated that about 30% of all electricity is used for water pumping and about 42% of the total hydropower is being used for water pumping. In case other stand alone energy sources like private generators, etc, are included this percentage increases even more. About 16% of peak energy consumption is used by tube wells. A flat rate has been levied for the use of electricity by these tube wells as a result of which they did not have an incentive to save money and be efficient 

THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025 

2.1       Background

The Water Vision for Pakistan, as prepared through a process of Consultation, by the Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP) has been presented in the Pakistan Country Report: Vision for Water for the 21st Century, (First Draft); June 15, 1999.

No separate document specific to the year 2025 has been developed for the Pakistan Water Vision which could be taken into account for the formulation of the Framework for Action'. However the GWP-SASTAC, in close collaboration with the respective Country Water Partnerships, has developed the South Asia Regional Water Vision 2025 (Draft) July, 1999 (SARWV) which contains the common and country specific vision elements, the major drivers and the country scenarios. Reference to these has therefore, been made in the Pakistan context, and also to the 'Components of Pakistan's Vision Statement' in the Country Report, as a foundation for the FFA. 

2.2 The Drivers

The major drivers, as given in the SARWV, which are also common to Pakistan are:

• Demographic
• Technological
• Economic
• Social
• Environmental
• Governance

2.2.1 Key Drivers in Pakistan

The ways the Key Drivers have been identified in the Pakistan Country Report on Vision for Water for the 21st Century are reproduced below:

2.2.1.1 Population Growth

The growth in population is one of the principal driving forces for change in Pakistan as it directly impacts the demand for water for domestic purposes and for food production, etc. The population of Pakistan was estimated at 139 million at the beginning of 1998. The current growth rate is estimated at 2.7 percent and is one of the highest in the region. In 1951, the growth rate of population was 1.79 percent and during 1972- 73 reached 3.69 percent. Followed by a declining trend, it is estimated to have decelerated to 2.77 percent in 1997 and to 2.7 percent in 1998. This population growth rate is projected to decrease to 2.5 percent by 2003. Projection of future population growth have been made by the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) and on the assumption of a gradually declining growth rate of 1.15 percent by 2025, a population of 208 million is projected by the year 2025. About 50% of this population is expected to be living in the urban areas and the rest in the rural areas. 

THE FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION

FOR

ACHIEVING THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025

At this Consultation, the Executive Secretary of the GWP, Mr. Khalid Mohtadullah, elaborated the roles of VVWC and the GWP in mounting concerted Initiatives, at the Global, Regional and Country levels, for tackling the issues posed by the ever growing demand for the limited water resources He also highlighted the need for a holistic approach to tackle the core challenges identified m the Vision, by putting into practice the accepted principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) He hoped that the Country's F FA could not only benefit the country but would also contribute to the work of the GWP Thereafter, Ms Maliha H Hussain, the Vision Coordinator, presented an overview of the Pakistan Water Vision bringing out the main Issues to be addressed This was followed by an elaboration of the Consultation Paper by the FF A Coordinator, Mr. Muhammad Munir Chaudhry, before the consultation participants took it up for deliberation, In groups and at a plenary session

As a result of the first Consultation, ideas were generated on the key elements of the Country's FFA and a number of recommendations were made. Taking these into consideration and following largely the outline which was endorsed by the Consultation participants, the FFA Coordinator, prepared a Draft FFA, incorporating, as a point of reference, the present position as it impacted on the future prospects.

For the review of the Draft FF A, the PWP organized a second Consultation on the 13th January, 2000 at Lahore Like the earlier Consultation. it was attended by many stakeholders in water and was presided by the Chairman of the Interim Steering Committee of the PWP, Sardar Muhammad Tariq The Executive Secretary of the GWP, Mr. Khahd Mohtadullah, was the chief guest.

At this Consultation, while welcoming the chief guest, Sardar M. Tariq, highlighted the pressing problems facing the country due to the dimimisting water resources per capita. He drew the attention of the participants to the importance of the task before them and requested them to give all they could to make the FFA a worthwhile document. Mr. Khahd Mohtadullah, emphasized the need for the broadest consultation among the stakeholders in water to secure a commitment for the FFA and said that the country's interest demanded that it comes out with the most appropriate actions in a holistic framework which could be supported by the world community.

Following the preliminaries the participants of the Consultation broke up in groups to review the component Sections of the Draft FFA and reassembled again in a plenary session for the presentation of the group views and further deliberation thereon.

Taking into account the suggestions and the recommendations that were made at this Consultation, the FFA as presented herein has been finalized

In the format of this Report, the Pakistan Water Vision 2025, the achievement of which forms the basis of the FFA. has first been presented briefly. This is followed by a Section on Overarching Elements of the FF A, which takes cognizance of the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and treats the important elements thereof including Gender Mainstreaming The subsequent Sections are sector related. Under each of these Sections the core challenges/issues have been brought out leading to the statement of the objectives. This is followed by the strategies and the proposed actions for achieving the objectives. The concluding Section provides the rationale for the Way Forward 

THE FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION

FOR

ACHIEVING THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025

Introduction

AS a first step, the National FFA Coordinator therefore, decided to establish a close linkage with the FAU by tapping its website and by procuring directly all the relevant material for the formulation of the FFAs which had been put together by FAU.

The FFA Coordinator, at the same time established a linage with Dr. P S Rao Regional Coordinator on Vision and Framework for Action for the South Asia Regional, which apart form Pakistan covers Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. This linage, made it possible to take cognizance of the South Asia Regional Water Vision 2025 and also the depredations of the SASTAC (south Asia Technical Advisory Committee) for the formulation of the Regional FFA. 

To make initial Consultation as fruitful as possible, the FFA Coordinator put together all relevant material, in the form of a Consultation Paper. In this consultation paper, the approach to the FFA as advocated by the FAU was brought out and Country's Water Vision 2025., was broadly presented. Also following the treatment in the Regional Water Vision a set of objectives strategies and Actions under the different Vision elements were set out for consideration. 

Apart form the Consultation Paper, the FFA Coordinator, compiled copies of i) Country's water vision for the 21st century, ii) Documents prepared by the FAU for achieving the vision iii) South Asia Regional Water Vision 2025 and iv) The Toolbox drafted by the FAU as a guide for the choice of the strategies and action. 

All these documents were distributed by the Chairman, PWP to the participants well in advance of the First Consultation which was held at Islamabad on November 16, 1999. The Consultation was attended by a wide cross section of stakeholders in Water, representing Federal and Provincial agencies, research organizations, universities, consulting firms, NGOs gender related bodies and donor. 

THE FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION

FOR

ACHIEVING THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025

Introduction

The Report by the Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP), represents an initiative in formulating a Framework for Action (FFA) which would lead to the achievement of the country'w Water Vision 2025.

The creation of the PWP, along with similar partnerships in other countries and their regional groups, has been fostered by  the Global Water Partnership (GWP). The GWP is collaborating with the World Water Council (WWC) in the Development of the Long Term Vision for Water. Life and the Environment in the 21st century of World Water Visions. The World Water Vision is expected to subsume the Water Vision for the countries and regions in Tandem with the development of the Water Visions. The GWP has initiated the formulation of country and regional FFAs which would constitute the building blocks for the formulation of Global FFA. This would help in the achievement of the Water Vision in the year 2025. The World Water Vision and the Global FFA are due for presentation at the international World Water Forum and Ministerial Conference in The Hague, March, 2000.

Before embarking on the formulation of the Country's FFA, the PWP with the help of a National Coordinator prepared in June, 1999, the Pakistan Country Report Vision for Water for 21st Century. this was the result of a wide consultation with the stakeholders in water culminating in the Vision Workshop May 24-25, 1999 in Islamabad 

For formulating the country's FFA the PWP decided to follow the consultative process as for the Water Vision, and to carry it through appointed a National FFA Coordinator in mid-September, 1999.

To assist the National FFA Coordinator in carrying through the consultative process for the formulation of the Country's FFA, the PWP made provision for mobilizing the services of resource persons. The PWP also required that for the initial Consultation on the FFA, the FFA Coordinator would prepare a background paper which would bring together such material in a cogent form which would help the participants of the Consultation in formulating considered opinions on the actions to the undertaken, in the short, medium and long term, to realize the objectives and goals of the Water Vision 2025

As the preparation of the Country, Regional and Global FFAs to be undertaken on similar lines, the GWP has mobilized a team of International Specialists in a Framework for Action Unit (FAU) to prepare the Global FFA and to facilitate the process of Framework preparation by others. 

continue...........

THE WAY FORWARD

Pakistan is faced with a situation that all its developed water resources are inadequate to meet the irrigation and other water requirements and without increasing the stock of water and raising its productivity there would be mounting shortfall in meeting the food and fiber requirements for the ever increasing population. Within the finite water resources that are available to the country, the scope for further development is limited, but if it is tapped to the extent feasible, then it may be possible to boost the agricultural production to meet the agricultural requirements in 2025. This would however require a massive investment of the order of US $ 25.423 Billion (Pak. Rupees 1322 Billion at 1 US$ = Rs. 52) to harness 32.30 BCM of additional water supplies and to increase the irrigated area by 11.34 million acres.

This position provides the rationale for a concerted progarmme of action whose principle elements should include:

• A massive public awareness programme of the impending disaster and securing a political commitment for the say forward. 
• Prescription of a comprehensive National Water Policy, subscribed by all stakeholders in water, encompassing all aspects of water development, its allocation, its management and conservation.
• Provision of a Legal framework for effectuating the policies and reformed ,accountable institutions for their implementation in consort with the stakeholders.
• Laying down targets for specific actions in water sub-sectors.
• Introducing a system of monitoring evaluation and feed back. 

Following the above elements, it is expected that the actions proposed in the FFA would be able to achieve the stated objectives.