2.4  The Scenario 2025

Pertaining to Pakistan, the SARWV has brought out the Scenario as under:

 2.4.1 Water for Food

Projections of food production indicate that Pakistan will have shortfall in the production of all major food grains and crops. Projections of grain production show a shortfall of 11 million tons by 2010 and 16 million tons by 2020. It is estimated that by 2025, Pakistan will be short by 28 million tons of different food crops The government would be forced to import edible oils large quantities of wheat as well as all major crops. With growing external debt poor foreign and internal financial resources and an inadequate industrial base it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for the government to finance the rising import bill. Food scarcity could create famine-like conditions in the country

This is not much of a vision of a sustainable scenario; rather, ringing of the alarm bells to see the challenges and devise ways of coping with them in good time

2.4.2 Water for Pee. pie

Even conservative estimates indicate that the population of Pakistan will have grown to 208 million by 2025 About 50 percent of the population will be living In the urban areas thus exerting additional pressure on the already strained municipal facilities To provide adequate water supply and sanitation coverage to this population would require large investments in the sector of the order of Pak Rs 12 billion (245 million US$) per year. In the absence of adequate domestic water supply, sanitation and drainage by the public sector, people will begin to dig their own wells and the indiscriminate groundwater exploitation, that IS in evidence today, will increase many-fold leading to further pollution of the natural aquifers. The lack of sanitation and drainage facilities with no provision for sewage treatment will lead to further pollution of freshwater supplies Pollution in rivers and streams will increase and aquatic life in the rivers and streams will be severely threatened. In the absence of water quality monitoring and testing, the incidence of water-borne diseases will continue to grow and some of the diseases which have been eradicated from Pakistan will resurface such as the guinea worm disease, etc. Mortality and morbidity rates of the vulnerable sections of the population will increase. These challenges need to be addressed with a great sense of urgency.

2.4.3 Water for Nature

The 2025 scenario with respect to the fragile ecosystems of the upland areas of Pakistan is not an enviable one. Pakistan today has less than 4 percent of its area under forest cover. Without proper development of the watersheds, the forest resources of the country, found mostly in the north, will be depleted. At a rate of 4 percent of depletion on an annual basis, there may hardly be any forests in the country by 2025. This will lead to further erosion of silt and the sedimentation levels in the rivers will increase further eroding the storage capacity of the reservoirs thereby posing additional problems in the ultimate disposal of the silt The reduction in the forest resources could reduce the carbon sinks in the upland areas and add to higher temperatures. The increased temperatures could speed up the snow melt in the summer and add greater flows being discharged during short periods in the Indus river system. This would increase seasonal variability and add to the wastage of water to sea as additional storages are unlikely to be put in place. Large quantities of flood water are wasted to the sea as evident from post Tarbela (1977-94) flows of Indus below Kotri. It is estimated that around 39.4 BCM (32 MAF) is currently wasted to the sea.

The major environmental problems are water-logging and salinity problems; sedimentation of reservoirs with the storage capacities getting eroded; and the salt balance of the soils with nearly 25 million tons being retained in the soils every year.

Important aquatic resources, mangrove forests and coastal areas need to be protected from intrusion of sea water which is gradually increasing. Mangrove forests cover 321,510 acres (130,166 Ha) of the tidal coastal area from Karachi to Rann of Kutch They are an important source of firewood and provide the natural breeding ground for shrimps. Similarly, fresh water fish are an important source of protein for the people along the Indus. However, these resources are under threat due to the pollution in the rivers and streams.

2.4.4 Water Resources Development

The flow of the Indus River and its tributaries constitutes the main source of surface water for the country. There are large annual fluctuations and seasonal fluctuations in the river flows. The Kharif inflows average about 141.8 BCM (115 MAF) and the Rabi inflows average 27 BCM (22 MAF). Thus 83.6 percent of the flows are in six months of high summer (Kharif) and only 16.4 percent is in the winter (Rabi) season. To stagger the peak summer flows three surface reservoirs were constructed at Mangla (1967), Chashma (1971) and Tarbela (1974). The initial storage capacity of these reservoirs was about 19.3 BCM (157 MAF) however, there are about 500 mil/ion tons of sediment which flows through the Indus river system on an annual basis which has eroded the storage capacity of the reservoirs.

The groundwater storage capacity in Pakistan is estimated around 67.8 BCM (55 MAF). The hydro-geological conditions are mostly favorable for pumping by tube-wells. It is estimated that 15,504 large capacity public tube-wells and 469,546 private tube-wells of low capacity are currently installed in the country The groundwater pumpage in the Indus basin has increased from 4.12 BCM (3.34 MAF) in 1959 to 59.2 BCM (48 MAF) in 1996-97. 

Indiscriminate pumping without proper monitoring and lack of knowledge about the chemistry and hydrodynamics of the aquifer has already contributed to the Pollution of aquifers. In many places, the salinity of tube-wells has increased. Pakistan's groundwater resources are at the brink of exhaustion and there is a need to conserve this invaluable resource. In this context, several water conservation programmes are being implemented in different parts of the country. 

In Baluchistan, which relies almost exclusively on groundwater, the water table has been going down by 2-3 feet (0.60-0.91 meters) on an annual basis.

At the time of independence, about 789 BCM (64 MAF) of water was being utilized annually in the irrigation canals in the country. With the construction of more barrages, link canals, and storage dams, water use has increased to an average of 130 BCM (106 MAF). Per capita water availability has gone down from 5104 cubic meters in 1950 to around 1200 cubic meters currently. Out of the 43 - 49 BCM (35 - 40 MAF) going to the sea, a total of about 30.8 _ 37.00 BCM (25 - 30 MAF) can be used for future development through construction of mufti-purpose storages, remodeling of canals and irrigation extension schemes. There is little potential for increase in water availability for Pakistan from surface or ground water sources. However, the Ninth Five Year Plan (1998 - 2002) envisages that about 5.32 BCM (4.32 MAF) can be made available through conservation measures and installation of tube-wells.

The competitive demands from different sectors have not yet emerged as a key issue in Pakistan but are likely to become a major issue in future. Pakistan needs to review strategies for reallocation of water from irrigation to domestic use. Conservation measures in agriculture can help in increasing the productivity of water 

2.2.1.4 Environmental Quality

Yields and production are critically affected by the water table and the condition of the soils the rising water table has eroded the natural potential of agriculture production in Pakistan. The twin problems of water-logging and salinity pose a real danger to Pakistan. Over 16% of the country's irrigated lands are presently degraded by severe water-logging and over 14% are affected by severe salinity. The Government of Pakistan initiated the Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPs) in the 1960s through the use of tube-well technology for drainage. However, the heavy operational and repair costs and pumping saline water from ground brackish water zone tilted the balance in favor of shallow tube-wells and even pipe drainage system The tube-wells have contributed to the salt accumulation in the soil surface because the equality between incoming and outgoing salts was not maintained and the water table virtually lowered by evaporation a transpiration. Due to the failure of the SCARPs to deal with the problem effectively, the National Drainage Project (NDP) was approved in 1997 at Cost of Rs 31 billion. 

2.3 Vision Elements

The elements of the vision which are common to all the Regional Countries as identified in the SARWV are shown in Annex-2.1. In addition, the following elements have been brought out as specific to Pakistan t as specific to Pakistan.

• National consensus in the development of hydro-power, reservoirs for irrigation and power generation.

• Research and Technology development in the areas of energy use, desalination of water.

• Salt balance in the soils will be so managed that the natural carrying capacity of the land will not be negatively impacted by excess salts.

• Development of a strategy for effective disposal of the sediment in the reservoirs.

• Coordination and linkage between irrigation and drainage functions. A sustainable drainage policy and strategy to resolve problems of water-logging and salinity.

• A hybrid system of energy supply in which indigenous, localized and renewable energy resources will be the main source of energy. 

2.2.1.2 Economic Growth

Pakistan's economy has undergone a remarkable structural change during the last four decades. In the years between 1949-50 agriculture was the dominant sector, contributing about 53% to Gross Domestic Project (GDP). However, the share of the agriculture sector has declined over time and was at 246 in 1997-98 However, agriculture is still the largest sector providing one quarter of GDP and 70% of the work force derives employment from agriculture, and agricultural exports generate over 70% of the total foreign exchange earnings Projections of the structure of the economy were made based on the past record of economic growth for 2025. These projections indicate that by the year 2025 the share of the agriculture sector in GDP will decrease to 18.41 %, manufacturing sector will be 21.99% and other commodity producing sectors will be 10.69%. The service sectors share in GDP will not change and is projected to be around 48.91%.

2.2.1.3 Energy Use

Per capita consumption of energy in Pakistan is extremely low, with a comparatively flat rate of increase However, Pakistan uses the limited energy at its disposal in an extremely inefficient manner Availability of energy is key for economic growth and development in Pakistan Any change in the energy sector would have a direct impact on the water sector because of the large amount of energy used by the water sector. The water sector is one of the principal users of electricity and as such. the energy pricing policies will have a great deal of impact on our use of water resources It is estimated that about 30% of all electricity is used for water pumping and about 42% of the total hydropower is being used for water pumping. In case other stand alone energy sources like private generators, etc, are included this percentage increases even more. About 16% of peak energy consumption is used by tube wells. A flat rate has been levied for the use of electricity by these tube wells as a result of which they did not have an incentive to save money and be efficient 

THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025 

2.1       Background

The Water Vision for Pakistan, as prepared through a process of Consultation, by the Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP) has been presented in the Pakistan Country Report: Vision for Water for the 21st Century, (First Draft); June 15, 1999.

No separate document specific to the year 2025 has been developed for the Pakistan Water Vision which could be taken into account for the formulation of the Framework for Action'. However the GWP-SASTAC, in close collaboration with the respective Country Water Partnerships, has developed the South Asia Regional Water Vision 2025 (Draft) July, 1999 (SARWV) which contains the common and country specific vision elements, the major drivers and the country scenarios. Reference to these has therefore, been made in the Pakistan context, and also to the 'Components of Pakistan's Vision Statement' in the Country Report, as a foundation for the FFA. 

2.2 The Drivers

The major drivers, as given in the SARWV, which are also common to Pakistan are:

• Demographic
• Technological
• Economic
• Social
• Environmental
• Governance

2.2.1 Key Drivers in Pakistan

The ways the Key Drivers have been identified in the Pakistan Country Report on Vision for Water for the 21st Century are reproduced below:

2.2.1.1 Population Growth

The growth in population is one of the principal driving forces for change in Pakistan as it directly impacts the demand for water for domestic purposes and for food production, etc. The population of Pakistan was estimated at 139 million at the beginning of 1998. The current growth rate is estimated at 2.7 percent and is one of the highest in the region. In 1951, the growth rate of population was 1.79 percent and during 1972- 73 reached 3.69 percent. Followed by a declining trend, it is estimated to have decelerated to 2.77 percent in 1997 and to 2.7 percent in 1998. This population growth rate is projected to decrease to 2.5 percent by 2003. Projection of future population growth have been made by the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) and on the assumption of a gradually declining growth rate of 1.15 percent by 2025, a population of 208 million is projected by the year 2025. About 50% of this population is expected to be living in the urban areas and the rest in the rural areas. 

THE FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION

FOR

ACHIEVING THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025

At this Consultation, the Executive Secretary of the GWP, Mr. Khalid Mohtadullah, elaborated the roles of VVWC and the GWP in mounting concerted Initiatives, at the Global, Regional and Country levels, for tackling the issues posed by the ever growing demand for the limited water resources He also highlighted the need for a holistic approach to tackle the core challenges identified m the Vision, by putting into practice the accepted principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) He hoped that the Country's F FA could not only benefit the country but would also contribute to the work of the GWP Thereafter, Ms Maliha H Hussain, the Vision Coordinator, presented an overview of the Pakistan Water Vision bringing out the main Issues to be addressed This was followed by an elaboration of the Consultation Paper by the FF A Coordinator, Mr. Muhammad Munir Chaudhry, before the consultation participants took it up for deliberation, In groups and at a plenary session

As a result of the first Consultation, ideas were generated on the key elements of the Country's FFA and a number of recommendations were made. Taking these into consideration and following largely the outline which was endorsed by the Consultation participants, the FFA Coordinator, prepared a Draft FFA, incorporating, as a point of reference, the present position as it impacted on the future prospects.

For the review of the Draft FF A, the PWP organized a second Consultation on the 13th January, 2000 at Lahore Like the earlier Consultation. it was attended by many stakeholders in water and was presided by the Chairman of the Interim Steering Committee of the PWP, Sardar Muhammad Tariq The Executive Secretary of the GWP, Mr. Khahd Mohtadullah, was the chief guest.

At this Consultation, while welcoming the chief guest, Sardar M. Tariq, highlighted the pressing problems facing the country due to the dimimisting water resources per capita. He drew the attention of the participants to the importance of the task before them and requested them to give all they could to make the FFA a worthwhile document. Mr. Khahd Mohtadullah, emphasized the need for the broadest consultation among the stakeholders in water to secure a commitment for the FFA and said that the country's interest demanded that it comes out with the most appropriate actions in a holistic framework which could be supported by the world community.

Following the preliminaries the participants of the Consultation broke up in groups to review the component Sections of the Draft FFA and reassembled again in a plenary session for the presentation of the group views and further deliberation thereon.

Taking into account the suggestions and the recommendations that were made at this Consultation, the FFA as presented herein has been finalized

In the format of this Report, the Pakistan Water Vision 2025, the achievement of which forms the basis of the FFA. has first been presented briefly. This is followed by a Section on Overarching Elements of the FF A, which takes cognizance of the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and treats the important elements thereof including Gender Mainstreaming The subsequent Sections are sector related. Under each of these Sections the core challenges/issues have been brought out leading to the statement of the objectives. This is followed by the strategies and the proposed actions for achieving the objectives. The concluding Section provides the rationale for the Way Forward 

THE FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION

FOR

ACHIEVING THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025

Introduction

AS a first step, the National FFA Coordinator therefore, decided to establish a close linkage with the FAU by tapping its website and by procuring directly all the relevant material for the formulation of the FFAs which had been put together by FAU.

The FFA Coordinator, at the same time established a linage with Dr. P S Rao Regional Coordinator on Vision and Framework for Action for the South Asia Regional, which apart form Pakistan covers Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. This linage, made it possible to take cognizance of the South Asia Regional Water Vision 2025 and also the depredations of the SASTAC (south Asia Technical Advisory Committee) for the formulation of the Regional FFA. 

To make initial Consultation as fruitful as possible, the FFA Coordinator put together all relevant material, in the form of a Consultation Paper. In this consultation paper, the approach to the FFA as advocated by the FAU was brought out and Country's Water Vision 2025., was broadly presented. Also following the treatment in the Regional Water Vision a set of objectives strategies and Actions under the different Vision elements were set out for consideration. 

Apart form the Consultation Paper, the FFA Coordinator, compiled copies of i) Country's water vision for the 21st century, ii) Documents prepared by the FAU for achieving the vision iii) South Asia Regional Water Vision 2025 and iv) The Toolbox drafted by the FAU as a guide for the choice of the strategies and action. 

All these documents were distributed by the Chairman, PWP to the participants well in advance of the First Consultation which was held at Islamabad on November 16, 1999. The Consultation was attended by a wide cross section of stakeholders in Water, representing Federal and Provincial agencies, research organizations, universities, consulting firms, NGOs gender related bodies and donor. 

THE FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION

FOR

ACHIEVING THE PAKISTAN WATER VISION 2025

Introduction

The Report by the Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP), represents an initiative in formulating a Framework for Action (FFA) which would lead to the achievement of the country'w Water Vision 2025.

The creation of the PWP, along with similar partnerships in other countries and their regional groups, has been fostered by  the Global Water Partnership (GWP). The GWP is collaborating with the World Water Council (WWC) in the Development of the Long Term Vision for Water. Life and the Environment in the 21st century of World Water Visions. The World Water Vision is expected to subsume the Water Vision for the countries and regions in Tandem with the development of the Water Visions. The GWP has initiated the formulation of country and regional FFAs which would constitute the building blocks for the formulation of Global FFA. This would help in the achievement of the Water Vision in the year 2025. The World Water Vision and the Global FFA are due for presentation at the international World Water Forum and Ministerial Conference in The Hague, March, 2000.

Before embarking on the formulation of the Country's FFA, the PWP with the help of a National Coordinator prepared in June, 1999, the Pakistan Country Report Vision for Water for 21st Century. this was the result of a wide consultation with the stakeholders in water culminating in the Vision Workshop May 24-25, 1999 in Islamabad 

For formulating the country's FFA the PWP decided to follow the consultative process as for the Water Vision, and to carry it through appointed a National FFA Coordinator in mid-September, 1999.

To assist the National FFA Coordinator in carrying through the consultative process for the formulation of the Country's FFA, the PWP made provision for mobilizing the services of resource persons. The PWP also required that for the initial Consultation on the FFA, the FFA Coordinator would prepare a background paper which would bring together such material in a cogent form which would help the participants of the Consultation in formulating considered opinions on the actions to the undertaken, in the short, medium and long term, to realize the objectives and goals of the Water Vision 2025

As the preparation of the Country, Regional and Global FFAs to be undertaken on similar lines, the GWP has mobilized a team of International Specialists in a Framework for Action Unit (FAU) to prepare the Global FFA and to facilitate the process of Framework preparation by others. 

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