2.4  The Scenario 2025

Pertaining to Pakistan, the SARWV has brought out the Scenario as under:

 2.4.1 Water for Food

Projections of food production indicate that Pakistan will have shortfall in the production of all major food grains and crops. Projections of grain production show a shortfall of 11 million tons by 2010 and 16 million tons by 2020. It is estimated that by 2025, Pakistan will be short by 28 million tons of different food crops The government would be forced to import edible oils large quantities of wheat as well as all major crops. With growing external debt poor foreign and internal financial resources and an inadequate industrial base it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for the government to finance the rising import bill. Food scarcity could create famine-like conditions in the country

This is not much of a vision of a sustainable scenario; rather, ringing of the alarm bells to see the challenges and devise ways of coping with them in good time

2.4.2 Water for Pee. pie

Even conservative estimates indicate that the population of Pakistan will have grown to 208 million by 2025 About 50 percent of the population will be living In the urban areas thus exerting additional pressure on the already strained municipal facilities To provide adequate water supply and sanitation coverage to this population would require large investments in the sector of the order of Pak Rs 12 billion (245 million US$) per year. In the absence of adequate domestic water supply, sanitation and drainage by the public sector, people will begin to dig their own wells and the indiscriminate groundwater exploitation, that IS in evidence today, will increase many-fold leading to further pollution of the natural aquifers. The lack of sanitation and drainage facilities with no provision for sewage treatment will lead to further pollution of freshwater supplies Pollution in rivers and streams will increase and aquatic life in the rivers and streams will be severely threatened. In the absence of water quality monitoring and testing, the incidence of water-borne diseases will continue to grow and some of the diseases which have been eradicated from Pakistan will resurface such as the guinea worm disease, etc. Mortality and morbidity rates of the vulnerable sections of the population will increase. These challenges need to be addressed with a great sense of urgency.

2.4.3 Water for Nature

The 2025 scenario with respect to the fragile ecosystems of the upland areas of Pakistan is not an enviable one. Pakistan today has less than 4 percent of its area under forest cover. Without proper development of the watersheds, the forest resources of the country, found mostly in the north, will be depleted. At a rate of 4 percent of depletion on an annual basis, there may hardly be any forests in the country by 2025. This will lead to further erosion of silt and the sedimentation levels in the rivers will increase further eroding the storage capacity of the reservoirs thereby posing additional problems in the ultimate disposal of the silt The reduction in the forest resources could reduce the carbon sinks in the upland areas and add to higher temperatures. The increased temperatures could speed up the snow melt in the summer and add greater flows being discharged during short periods in the Indus river system. This would increase seasonal variability and add to the wastage of water to sea as additional storages are unlikely to be put in place. Large quantities of flood water are wasted to the sea as evident from post Tarbela (1977-94) flows of Indus below Kotri. It is estimated that around 39.4 BCM (32 MAF) is currently wasted to the sea.

The major environmental problems are water-logging and salinity problems; sedimentation of reservoirs with the storage capacities getting eroded; and the salt balance of the soils with nearly 25 million tons being retained in the soils every year.

Important aquatic resources, mangrove forests and coastal areas need to be protected from intrusion of sea water which is gradually increasing. Mangrove forests cover 321,510 acres (130,166 Ha) of the tidal coastal area from Karachi to Rann of Kutch They are an important source of firewood and provide the natural breeding ground for shrimps. Similarly, fresh water fish are an important source of protein for the people along the Indus. However, these resources are under threat due to the pollution in the rivers and streams.

2.4.4 Water Resources Development

The flow of the Indus River and its tributaries constitutes the main source of surface water for the country. There are large annual fluctuations and seasonal fluctuations in the river flows. The Kharif inflows average about 141.8 BCM (115 MAF) and the Rabi inflows average 27 BCM (22 MAF). Thus 83.6 percent of the flows are in six months of high summer (Kharif) and only 16.4 percent is in the winter (Rabi) season. To stagger the peak summer flows three surface reservoirs were constructed at Mangla (1967), Chashma (1971) and Tarbela (1974). The initial storage capacity of these reservoirs was about 19.3 BCM (157 MAF) however, there are about 500 mil/ion tons of sediment which flows through the Indus river system on an annual basis which has eroded the storage capacity of the reservoirs.

The groundwater storage capacity in Pakistan is estimated around 67.8 BCM (55 MAF). The hydro-geological conditions are mostly favorable for pumping by tube-wells. It is estimated that 15,504 large capacity public tube-wells and 469,546 private tube-wells of low capacity are currently installed in the country The groundwater pumpage in the Indus basin has increased from 4.12 BCM (3.34 MAF) in 1959 to 59.2 BCM (48 MAF) in 1996-97. 

Indiscriminate pumping without proper monitoring and lack of knowledge about the chemistry and hydrodynamics of the aquifer has already contributed to the Pollution of aquifers. In many places, the salinity of tube-wells has increased. Pakistan's groundwater resources are at the brink of exhaustion and there is a need to conserve this invaluable resource. In this context, several water conservation programmes are being implemented in different parts of the country. 

In Baluchistan, which relies almost exclusively on groundwater, the water table has been going down by 2-3 feet (0.60-0.91 meters) on an annual basis.

At the time of independence, about 789 BCM (64 MAF) of water was being utilized annually in the irrigation canals in the country. With the construction of more barrages, link canals, and storage dams, water use has increased to an average of 130 BCM (106 MAF). Per capita water availability has gone down from 5104 cubic meters in 1950 to around 1200 cubic meters currently. Out of the 43 - 49 BCM (35 - 40 MAF) going to the sea, a total of about 30.8 _ 37.00 BCM (25 - 30 MAF) can be used for future development through construction of mufti-purpose storages, remodeling of canals and irrigation extension schemes. There is little potential for increase in water availability for Pakistan from surface or ground water sources. However, the Ninth Five Year Plan (1998 - 2002) envisages that about 5.32 BCM (4.32 MAF) can be made available through conservation measures and installation of tube-wells.

The competitive demands from different sectors have not yet emerged as a key issue in Pakistan but are likely to become a major issue in future. Pakistan needs to review strategies for reallocation of water from irrigation to domestic use. Conservation measures in agriculture can help in increasing the productivity of water